Contact-number-driven virus evolution: A multi-level modeling framework for the evolution of acute or persistent RNA virus infection.

Viruses evolve in infected host populations, and host population dynamics affect viral evolution. RNA viruses with a short duration of infection and a high peak viral load, such as SARS-CoV-2, are maintained in human populations. By contrast, RNA viruses characterized by a long infection duration and a low peak viral load (e.g., borna disease virus) can be maintained in nonhuman populations, and the process of the evolution of persistent viruses has rarely been explored. Here, using a multi-level modeling approach including both individual-level virus infection dynamics and population-scale transmission, we consider virus evolution based on the host environment, specifically, the effect of the contact history of infected hosts. We found that, with a highly dense contact history, viruses with a high virus production rate but low accuracy are likely to be optimal, resulting in a short infectious period with a high peak viral load. In contrast, with a low-density contact history, viral evolution is toward low virus production but high accuracy, resulting in long infection durations with low peak viral load. Our study sheds light on the origin of persistent viruses and why acute viral infections but not persistent virus infection tends to prevail in human society.

A multicenter study to investigate the positive rate of SARS-CoV-2 in middle ear and mastoid specimens from otologic surgery patients.

OBJECTIVE: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus, causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Otologic surgeries with drilling by powered instruments induce significant aerosols, which may induce SARS-CoV-2 transmission to medical staff if SARS-CoV-2 exists in the middle ear and mastoid cavity. During a COVID-19 pandemic, therefore, confirming a negative COVID-19 test prior to otologic surgery is recommended. However, previous coronavirus studies demonstrated that coronavirus was detected in the middle ear in some patients even though the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test using their nasopharyngeal swab was negative. This study aimed to elucidate the probability of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test in the middle ear or mastoid specimens from otologic surgery patients in whom SARS-CoV-2 was not detected by preoperative PCR test using a nasopharyngeal swab. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, multicenter clinical study. Between April 2020 and December 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, 251 ears of the 228 participants who underwent otologic surgery were included in this study. All participants had no symptoms suggesting COVID-19 or close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 patient two weeks prior to the surgery. They were also negative in the SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests using a nasopharyngeal swab before surgery. We collected mucosa, granulation, bone dust with mucosa or fluid from the middle ear or mastoid for the SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests during each otologic surgery. RESULTS: The median age of the participants at surgery was 31.5 years old. Mastoidectomy using a powered instrument was conducted in 180 of 251 otologic surgeries (71.8%). According to intraoperative findings, active inflammation in the middle ear or mastoid cavities was evident in 20 otologic surgeries (8.0%), while minor inflammation was observed in 77 (30.7%). All SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests of otologic specimens showed a negative result. No patient suffered from COVID-19 within two months after otologic surgery. Furthermore, no hospital-acquired infections associated with otologic surgery occurred in our institutions CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that PCR testing did not detect SARS-CoV-2 in middle ear and mastoid specimens, suggesting that the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is not high in otologic surgeries even using powered instruments when both clinical and laboratory tests are confirmed to be negative for COVID-19.

Radioligand Assay-Based Detection of Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in Hospital Workers Treating Patients with Severe COVID-19 in Japan.

This study aimed to clarify whether infection by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is prevalent among the staff of a hospital providing treatment to patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using radioligand assay (RLA). One thousand samples from the staff of a general hospital providing treatment to patients with severe COVID-19 were assayed for SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein (N) IgG using RLA. Nine patients with COVID-19 who had been treated in inpatient settings and had already recovered were used as control subjects, and 186 blood donor samples obtained more than 10 years ago were used as negative controls. Four of the 1000 samples showed apparently positive results, and approximately 10 or more samples showed slightly high counts. Interestingly, a few among the blood donor samples also showed slightly high values. To validate the results, antibody examinations using ELISA and neutralizing antibody tests were performed on 21 samples, and chemiluminescence immunoassay (CLIA) was performed on 201 samples, both resulting in a very high correlation. One blood donor sample showed slightly positive results in both RLA and CLIA, suggesting a cross-reaction. This study showed that five months after the pandemic began in Japan, the staff of a general hospital with a tertiary emergency medical facility had an extremely low seroprevalence of the antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Further investigation will be needed to determine whether the slightly high results were due to cross-reactions or a low titer of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The quantitative RLA was considered sensitive enough to detect low titers of antibodies.